Water and the Future of Namibia

About three weeks ago the Geologists of the German Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources BGR who have been working for several years here in Windhoek announced what is amongst the most important mineral discoveries in the history of Namibia at an evening presentation at the Namibian Scientific Society. If the mineral in question had been oil or gas or diamonds or gold the presentation would have been the front page of every newspaper in the country  and in Africa but the mineral in question was far more important but far less valuable at least when measured by market prices. They had announced that massive aquifer at Ohangwena II  did not contain 5 billion cubic litres of the ‘mineral of life’ i.e. H₂O or  water but contained 20 billion cubic metres. For years when it was believed that Ohangwena II contained only 5 bcum of water it was said that it was enough for hundreds of years of Namibia’s water consumption. Now we have enough water to truly say that country is truly water rich.

 But in Namibia no-one outside the Ministry of  and Agriculture Water and Forestry seemed to care and yet  Ohangwena II is a game changer for  the Namibian economy  because  it is precisely the sort of discovery that can give the country the real economic boost it needs to be able to escape the dark and seemingly endless recession.  Everyone in Namibia still dreams of finding oil off the coast and then, they argue,  we can live happily ever after just like the Nigerians  or the Angolans  or even as the Libyans maybe!  Oil has rarely not been a blessing in Africa or elsewhere and in Africa  it issadly  associated with blood,  war and corruption. Oil is nice because it is easy money and would certainly drag Namibia out of its current and right into a much bigger and longer lasting one. But water creates the basis of the new economy but we will have to work very hard to make the transformation a reality if we want to see Namibians running commercial farms that are profitable and thousands of rural Namibians working on a sustainable future for the country.

The beauty of Ohangwena II and the great research that has been done is that Namibia now knows the recharge rate of the aquifer is and it is around 635,000 cum per annum. However this is very low  In other words we can take out that much water every year and not deplete the aquifer ever. The added beauty of Ohangwena is that it recharges from Angola into Namibia because that is the natural slope of the acquifer and therefore it is Namibia that can  make greatest use of the new water bonanza. On the Angolan side  the aquifer contain another 30 billion cum of water. Namibia is now water rich but alas  it is ‘pipe poor’. Nature or God makes water, men make pipes and pumping stations.

Whet can be done with all that water is exactly the same other countries in Africa such as Sudan which grows fodder for export or we can emulate the Israeli agricultural success story  and turn the North of Namibia into the food basket of Africa  which will create thousands of jobs. Unlike the development of an oil industry using ground water to irrigate agriculture will not be easy and will take very deep pockets and some hard choices. Even if we just produce fodder for cattle, which would probably transform the cattle industry in the country as well provide us an invaluable source of export earnings. Fodder is essential for the developments of feed lots which would modernize and industrialize the country’s cattle industry.

In reality of course 635,000 cum is not that much water, a few days usage in Windhoek,  but there is no sound geological reason why the recharge to the aquifer is not much larger than this modest estimate. The recharge is low because the water in the aquifer is not used and the recharge would certainly be much higher if we started pumping water. The water would come from Angolan side of the aquifer because of the topology.  But there is an economic and scientific reason why Namibia should not be overly concerned about using water well above this modest recharge level. Water is a mineral and yet no-one has ever suggested that our other minerals like uranium or diamonds should be exploited in a sustainable manner. We will wait a very long time for nature to produce more diamonds.

The scientific reason why we should use this water from Ohangwena  II is that humankind is now on the cusp of developing adequate means of low cost water desalination using solar power and so we will soon be able to pump brackish and saline ground water, desalinate and use them for producing crops like sorghum. Namibia should not necessarily concern itself if several million cubic metres are used for the development of the country.  

Developing a large agricultural project based on this massive water resource will certainly be a challenge for Namibia but it will, after fish,  provide the country with the only sustainable export that will create employment. Mining of other minerals will see the shedding of thousands of jobs in the coming years as robotics and automation spread. An investor will require a very large tract of land to make this sort of investment and there will need to be a careful regulatory system put in place but most importantly is that any large scale agricultural project in the North must include and directly benefit local investors as well as the people of Ovamboland.

These are the views of Professor Roman Grynberg and not necessarily those of UNAM where he is employed.