Sunday, 13 November 2016

African Infrastructure, World Bank Responsibility and the Economics of 10%


African Infrastructure, World Bank Responsibility and the Economics of 10%

When you drive into Gaborone, Botswana’s capital from the airport there area number of iconic buildings on the right side of the road. The most imposing is the Diamond Trading Corporation  buildingwhere most of the nation’s diamond wealth is traded. Next to it is the Bank of Botswana and not far down the road is a building that is also a metaphor for everything about Botswana that seems to make no sense. The imposing structure is the Botswana Bureau of Standards (BOBS), a huge building that, was when I last visited in 2015 was largely empty. It is large enough, it is said,  to  hold two large Boeing jets and is frequently used for religious ceremonies and marriage celebrations. The obvious question is why does Botswana, a tiny country of two million which is a member of SACU and which draws on the standards of its larger neighbor South Africa need such a large Bureau of Standards building? The superficial answer so commonly heard is that  BOBS is a classic  case of African gigantamania, a condition that appears  to be common to those who design infrastructure projects throughout large swathes of Africa. But there is a better and simpler explanation that can explain what we see and that is the economics of the kick-back and the consultancy fees for construction. It is regrettably common practice to receive a kickbackfrom largeinfrastructure projects and when a project like BOBS does not make cents (read sense) then it is invariably making someone a lot of dollars. More simply put, a 10% kick-back on   $40 million project is much more than 10% of$4million and this may be a much more useful economic explanation for the apparent Africangigantamania than any psychological condition.

The World Bank has long argued that Africa needs to invest more in the development of infrastructure whether that is in electricity, water roads and railways. The continent is commonly said to require US$38 billion of investment per year, and a further US$37 billion per year in operations and maintenance; an overall price tag of US$75 billion. The total required spending translates into some 12 percent of Africa’s GDP. There is currently a funding gap for infrastructure in Africa of US$35 billion per year.

Some governments like that of resource rich and middle income  Botswana and Namibia, having proven the economic viability of a particular project,can still readily obtain loans from the World Bank and the African Development Bank. These are after all banks and they make their profits principally from providing loans to their customers and hence these same institutions have a strong interest in expanding infrastructure. If the AfDB and the World Bank provide a very large loan for a particular infrastructure project they commonly set up what is called a project management unit where their own consultants or staff work for the life of the project  to make sure that the sort of backhanders that are common in Africaninfrastructure don’t happen. But in some cases the AfDBand World Bank view particular African governments as having an internal governance structure to make sure that the project was implemented properly and on time without a project management unit. This is certainly the case, or at least has been in the past but in countries like Botswana where the international community has helped foster the common myth that good governance prevails in infrastructure tendering and so loans can be provided directly to the state with only limited oversight.

Recently the bankers in Washington and Tunis fell victim of their own propaganda about good governance in Botswana. Botswana, like Namibia is trying to transition from an energy model where it relies on the South Africans for its  supply where the National power authority, the BPC in Botswana or Nampower in Namibia become power generators in their own right. In Botswana, to achieve that objective.In 2009Botswana the World Bank, the AfDBand the government of Botswana and the Chinese government provided roughly equal parts  for financing of US $1.66 billionproject to build the Moropula B,  a simple and straightforward 600MW ( 4x 150MW) coal fired power plant. The power plant was supposed to be completed by 2012 but  was eventually handed over in 2014 with many technical problems.

Such 600 MW thermal plants are extremely common and had the project worked properly it would have put Botswana well on the path to energy self-sufficiency which it still aims to achieve by 2019. Botswana has an estimated 212 billion tonnes or 2/3 of Africa’s coal resource. Alas,nature makes coal but men make power stations and at least in the case of Moropula B, was pretty much of a disaster which has, since commencement, rarely operated anywhere near its design capacity. Recently the Botswana Minister of Minerals and Energy MrKitsoMokailahas suggested in parliament that he wants to sell the project to a private developer. It has been such a disaster that Botswana onceseen as the paragon of good governance and the epi-center  of what is called by visitors, ‘Africa-lite’ now seesGaboronesitting in the dark, like so many other less well endowedand corrupted African capitals. Botswana continues to buy power from Eskom at very high spot market prices linked to the cost of diesel power generation.

How did this grand and expensive disaster occur?There are many reasons but there has never been, nor shall there ever likely be a public or parliamentary enquiry into the failure of Moropule B which has so retarded private sector development in the country. The failure to investigate what happened and possibly punish those responsible is part of Botswana’s culture of complete legal impunity for the great and the powerful.  In what is as close to a World Bank criticism of the way Botswana chose the contractor,  a recent review of the project by the World Bank  listed the  projects undertaken by the contractor, China  National Electric Corporation, none had ever been as big as this. The then Chinese Ambassador to Botswana, Ding Xiaowen, in 2009 had reportedly advised  then Minerals and Energy Minister PonatshegoKedikilwe that CNEC was not qualified for the job and yet Kedikilwestill went ahead with the company.  The ambassador suggested that there were other Chinese firms tendering that had considerably more experience in such projects.

The World Bank and AfDB say they believe in open government and transparency and given that  both know that Botswana will never investigate what happened  at Moropula B then it is incumbent that they to do so if they are to have even a shadow of credibility in a the sector where they intend to lend heavily. These banks need to conduct  an open and transparent review of this Moropule B but they will almost certainly never do so  and sadly it will be buried.

In Namibia there is the creeping suspicion that policy makers making decisions over $7 billion dollar airport up-grades  anda new $2.2 billion parliament buildings  may not necessarily be pursuing the public interest. What is needed in both countries is the equivalent of the South African Office of the Public Protector,but for such infrastructure projects with same funding and modus operandi as the US Congressional Budget Office which has assured funding and  provides independent analysis to the US Congress. What would stop such an agency from also becoming corrupted like so many tender boards- only vigilance and an independent reporting route directly to parliament?

For a real economic transformation to occur  in Africa massive infrastructure investments will be necessary as the World Bank and AfDBcorrectly point out but  citizens need a completely open and independent assessment of how new projects are chosen, ranked,designed, costed and implemented. Under the current system the economics of 10% commonly prevails in many infrastructure projects and hence a completely independent and authoritative public assessment of new infrastructure projects is needed to assure that the citizenry are getting value for their money.

These are the views of Professor Roman Grynberg and not necessarily UNAM where he is employed.

 

 

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