In the last presidential elections in 2014 President Geingob got
some 87 % of the vote in an election
that wasfree and fair,and so how could
one say that SWAPO is endangered?The party is at the height of its political
power and popularity. But, like all liberation movements, having liberated
Namibia from the scourge of colonialism and apartheid the question is what does
the party do – how does it rebrand itself in a credible manner given its
historic successes and its current popularity? The development and transformation of Namibia into
prosperous anda fair and just society are
clearly the party’s current objectives. But like other ruling parties in Africa
like the ANC in South Africa, CCM in Tanzania the party often develops at least two wings. Some are the old
liberations struggle veterans that went
through long years of struggle to free the country and remain true believers. Others
as well as newer membership sees the ruling party as a means of assuring
tenders and rising in society’s ranks. With
time the old struggle veterans thin with aging and those are often younger ‘tenderpreneurs’ will naturally cometo dominate. It is this
development that in the end undermines the political foundations of any ruling party and for those thinking
that SWAPO’s political position is
unassailable it is worth remembering
that on the few occasions that President Kaunda permitted freely contested elections
in Zambia,his now defunct UNIP party also got 80% of the vote.
So how does the party protect itself from the rise of this more
entrepreneurial tendency which ultimately alienates itself from the people and those
who supported it during the struggle. This political core of the party will,
with time, become more cynical about politics and all politicians. Such a
tendency has already occurred in South Africa with the decline of the support
of the ANC to 53% of the popular vote at the last municipal elections this
month. The ANC still has the majority support of the people of South Africa and
it may well recover its previously unassailable position once President Zuma
finally stands aside.
It is the rise of the tenderepreneurs inside the ANC and the corruption and abuse of power in dealing with contracts, both infrastructural
and recurrent, that has lead to the
decline of the ANC’s popularity but clearly it was the involvement of President
Zuma in an infrastructure project that directly benefited him i.e. the Nkandla
affair that most tarnished his and the party’s reputation.
Paradoxically it is the fact of Nkandla and the ANC’s response to
the Constitutional court’s ruling on the Public Protectorthat has assured its
survival, at least for a while. If one can summarize the politics of the
current situation. President Zuma is in effect historyand will shortly retire to Nkandla that will remind him daily of
his demise. And his replacement is widely
expected to be CyrilRamaphosa a genuine hero of the anti-apartheid struggle
but more recently known as ‘Comrade Billionaire’( in rand) . Whether
Ramaphosaeventually comes to power and takes the ANC further down the
tenderpreneurial route is to be seen and if he does then in a few years 53%
support received in the municipal election will look pretty good rather than a
demonstration of the ANC’s weakness.
This raises one question of how should SWAPO save itself from a
similar fate. The only way to do this is to weaken the tenderpreneurial wing of
the party by decreasing the ability to introduce expensive, absurd and utterly
unnecessary infrastructure projects. The World Bank has estimated that $92
billion per year is needed in infrastructure spending throughout Africa to
bring infrastructure up to an acceptable level. This will be a great boon for
those seek to prosper from their involvement with these projects and yet the
World Bank, which will also benefit greatly from the massively loans that will
be needed has been completely silent on how to manage the corruption that will
surely follow.
The Nkandla affair is something that we will see a great deal more of in future, an infrastructure
projects that benefist specific individuals. Had it not been for the Constitutional position of
‘Public Protector’ and a Constitutional Court that upheld her
authority Mr Zuma would not be forced to repay the non-security parts of the
public expenditure on his retirement home. Had this not occurred then the ANC
would have faced an even more frustrated electorate. Of course no-one should
underestimate the personal qualities of Ms Mandosela herself who had the guts to
tell the truth to those in power.
The management of public expenditure on infrastructure is probably
Namibia’s greatest economic challengein the coming years. How do we stop folly
such as $2 billion for the construction of a new parliament without young
people having to go to the street each time?.Namibia needs new institutions
that will keep infrastructure and other expenditure sane and in check. The
first institution is an ‘Independent budget office’ which should review such
infrastructure independently and make public pronouncements through parliament
as is done by the Congress in the USA.
Second, the creation of a constitutional office equivalent to the Public
Protector in South Africa will ultimately provide a defense of the public against
abuse those who would use the state for their personal ends.
President Geingob would set himself apart from all those who
preceded him if he were to go to the people of Namibia and ask for a
constitutional amendment that would weaken the power of the tenderpreneurs and
bring more checks and balances into Namibia’s economy. Such an amendment to the
constitution that would protect the people and decrease the President’s poweras well as those around him. But it would guarantee
President Geingob’s place in Namibia’s
history as a wise leader who would do what was needed to protect Namibia against
the plunder and folly that will otherwise go unchecked in the age of
tenderpreneur.
These are the views of
Professor Roman Grynberg and not necessarily those of UNAM where he is employed.
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